Wednesday, December 29
Simon Winchester On Gaia, Geology & Tectonics
Thanks to Attaturk for this link to Simon Winchester in the New York Times:
"[...]Given these cascades of disasters past and present, one can only wonder: might there be some kind of butterfly effect, latent and deadly, lying out in the seismic world? There is of course no hard scientific truth - no firm certainty that a rupture on a tectonic boundary in the western Pacific (in Honshu, say) can lead directly to a break in a boundary in the eastern Pacific (in Parkfield), or another in the eastern Indian ocean (off Sumatra, say). But anecdotally, as this year has so tragically shown, there is evidence aplenty"
So far, I've been pretty good at predicting earthquakes, being as I am an obsessive follower of even small seismic events via the US Geological Survey's excellent earhquake warnings and maps: I've been right around 70% of the time, mainly on gut instinct. (Please note IANA Geologist, merely an enthusiastic amateur.) My prediction this time is the Cascades, San Andreas or Yellowstone, or possibly the Nazca plate around the coast of Chile. There have already been, since Sunday, seismic events in the Philippines, Hokkaido and Kamchatka Pensinula, and now the Aleutians and Alaska within the past hour. Within the past week there was a moderate (4.10 tremor in Chiapas, Mexico; it was very deep, 78km. This appears to mean that things are shifting deep underground and is not a good augury.You can see subsequent activity to the Indian Ocean event moving around the plate boundaries by looking at the maps as they update.
Anyone up for a wager?
11/28/2004 - 12/05/2004